Can laptops save PML-N from Imran Khan?

Wary of the rising political capital of Imran Khan in the plains of Punjab, the provincial government led by the erstwhile Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has unleashed the most valuable weapon in its arsenal to target the urban youth who are, by far, the vanguard of Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf.

Carrying a price tag of three billion rupees, the laptop distribution scheme is supposed to benefit the brightest across campuses across province. The money earmarked to launch this laptop onslaught is meant for the development of the whole province, slicing it off from the Annual Development Programme (ADP) of the province.

The chief minister aides believe that the scheme would go a long way in attracting the bulk of the youth from the province who, at the moment, have put their weight in the favor of the promise of change by Imran Khan. Confidantes of the chief minister also believe that when these laptops – purchased by public money – go to students, the entire neighbourhood would sway politically in favour of PML-N. However, detractors of the chief minister are of the view that the scheme would miserably fail just like sasti roti, food stamp, yellow cab and Ashiana schemes. Critics also point out that the Election Commission must take notice of the misuse of public money in an election year.

Using laptops as a political tool is the latest attempt in the vehemently contested duel for supremacy between the PML-N and the PTI. Just a few months back, the PML-N launched Nawaz Sharif’s daughter  Maryam Nawaz to woo the students of the province. Maryam, while visiting campuses in the city, took the political temperature of the youth and is still active in spreading this youth appeal in the students. After the political heir-apparent Hamza Shahbaz was hit by one scandal after another, Maryam was the answer from the PML-N for the youth of Punjab. The initiative, however, after making early headlines is fading fast.

Unlike PPP and PML-N, the problem between PTI and PML-N is that they are both vying for the same vote-bank. Before Imran’s star started shining on the horizon, PML-N was the sole propertier of this very valuable bank. But more than the youth, it had its appeal in the urban trader and merchant class who were considered the home constituency for the Sharif family, while the youth associated with this class naturally fell to the Sharifs as well.

Now, however, the dynamics have become different. Imran, sensing his chance based on his unmatched chrisma and impeccable public service record, leapt to grab this mass of voters that was lying unclaimed. The youth, frustrated, given the torturous machinations of power politics, responded with zeal to the call, setting up stage for a long drawn out political tussle between the two parties. If you take away urban seats of Punjab from the PML-N, it immediately falls down to the level of minor provincial party instead of major national player that it has become now. And if Imran has to score big, he has to attract the urban middle class families and youth.

Interestingly, both the parties are not heading to the country-side which is largely considered PPP’s domain, though PTI would definitely strive at some point for those seats as well. Thus the GT Road, a road dissecting Punjab vertically, is bastion of PML-N and coincidentally, this is the area where Imran is fancying his chances. However, the fact of the matter is this coveted line has shown no signs of desertion in favour of Imran like some constituencies did in south Punjab. When someone like Rana Nazir, Rana Tanvir and Raja brothers from Jehlum defect for the PTI, that will be the time when the Sharifs would consider calling it a day.

As for PTI, Imran would continue to step-up the pressure on Sharifs and then countdown to see if the PML-N wilts. The stage is set, the battle-lines drawn, the up and the coming challenger is staring straight at Sharifs, let’s see who blinks first.

Change? What change?

In Pakistan, hope soars as quickly as it plunges. Take the expectation that this country is on the verge of a spectacular political change, of the sort that was witnessed in the early 70s when former chairman Pakistan Peoples Party Zulfikar Ali Bhutto caused the collapse of traditional politics and brought at the centre of political stage the comman man —‘Tonga wala’ and ‘Rikshaw wala’ as he used to call them.

Propelling the new-age expectation has been the sense that there is nationwide disappointment with the existing lot of politicians, who have ruined the country in the name of ruling it. As the economy suffers from the pains of stagflation and law and order worsens, the resultant frustration would swell into a tidal wave bringing old houses of power down. This is what Imran Khan calls the tsunami that would level the established political order to the ground and help the rise of a new Pakistan.

However, the recent political exercise in voting has punctured this ballooning hope. If you combine the by-elections with the Senate elections, the result is a complete victory of traditional politics without a trace or hint of change. Together these elections have endorsed the Pakistan Muslim League-N and the Peoples Party with the good old factor of ‘independents’ shining from behind the two, indicating the hold of the individual in certain parts of the country.

Moreover, these elections have been contested according to the time-tested formula that money buys everything, and the rest can be obtained through lavish use of state funds and by striking hard bargains with local interlocutors. The other component of the formula, the gridlock of families and clans on national politics too, remains tight and strong.

Look at Musa Gilani’s thumping victory in Multan. While Shah Mehmood Qureshi can twist and turn in his shoes as senior vice president of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and complain bitterly that bynot contesting the polls, the party has frittered away his constituency, the votes gotten by Musa Gilani are still astounding — in excess of 90,000, almost double the votes of his opponent.

The victory looks particularly striking considering that the prime minister’s son had all the attributes that a changed political mood in the country, theoretically, should have rejected. From ill-gotten wealth to misgovernance, the family he belongs to is in the eye of every storm of accusation that can be possibly imagined.

On top of it all, his father is facing the charge of contempt of the highest judicial forum in the country. But these elements that are supposed to form the basis of the defeat of traditional ruling elite came to nothing on the day the polling started. Eyewitnesses say that enthusiastic voters stood in long queues cheering, waving and dancing on their way to electing their man, Musa Gilani, to the National Assembly. Later on, the thrill of celebrations peaked as aerial firing pierced the calm of the city for hours reportedly killing a person — a small cost to pay for the great joys of life of the Gilani family.

In the Senate elections billions have moved through greasy hands into deep pockets. In Balochistan and Fata, each vote was chased with unrivalled determination. The amounts mentioned in these ‘democratic transactions’ run up to 350 million a person. The end result? The Peoples Party has become the single largest party just a few short of having simple majority in the Senate while the PML-N has doubled its strength through careful deals struck in the backrooms of national politics with the negotiating team deputed by President Asif Ali Zardari.

The spectrum of politics looks no different from the time when the two parties shared the spoils of office by taking turns at exercising power. In that decade of the 90s even the almighty hand of the Establishment with all the rigging and stealing of elections could not break the mode of politics that hinged on the League and the PPP. It is the same in 2012.

It is true that these elections should not be taken as a final yardstick of future electoral behaviour in Pakistan. This country is deeply frustrated. The public is angry. Millions long for a break from the practices of the past that have pushed them on the margins of existence. But still these elections are a depressing sample of the enormous capacity of the voter to side with the champions of traditional politics, who refuse to disappear and are determined to retain their power at all costs. Pakistan may be changing, but electorally for now it has decided to stay the same.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 9^th, 2012.

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